Markets as Predictors of Election Outcomes: Campaign Events and Judgement Bias in the 1993 UBC Election Stock Market
نویسندگان
چکیده
Les économistes croient que les marchés financiers intègrent l’information de façon efficace. La Bourse des Élections de 1993 de UBC a été conçue pour exploiter cette aptitude en vue de prévoir le résultat de l’élection fédérale tenue en 1993. La prédiction finale du marché concernant les parts des votes allant à chacun des partis était très près des véritables résultats. Le marché a également généré un ensemble de données sur la position des partis à chaque point dans le temps durant la campagne. Cet article utilise une partie de ces données pour étudier deux questions concernant le comportement des contrepartistes. Premièrement, selon les contrepartistes et le marché, quels ont été les événements importants lors de la campagne électorale de 1993? Deuxièmement, est-ce que les contrepartistes ont montré des biais de jugement dans leurs transactions? C’est-à-dire, est-ce qu’ils avaient tendance à détenir des actions dans les partis qu’ils voulaient voir avoir du succès?
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